Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
